Security of Supply
Security of supply can be affected by a great many factors: machinery breaking down, tankers arriving late, extreme weather conditions, statutory inspection requirements, political unrest and other possible events. Some of these risks can be addressed by increased investment in backup facilities and infrastructure at key points in the supply chain. But other risks can be addressed more econmically during operations and some are beyond the control of an individual company, for example when it depends on feed suppliers. SecuoS offers the expertise to identify and assess such risks and optimise the risks responses.
Significant future capital expenditure can be saved through the introduction of our innovative capacity planning methodology. This methodology optimally matches delivery commitments with the production capability of the facilities, for example for gas treating facilities, LNG plants and LNG import terminals and underground gas storage.
Development of an Integrated Availability Model for ADCO's Availability Assurance Program by Bambang S. Santoso, ADCO, presented at ADIPEC 2010
ADCO operates and manages an expanding system of on-shore crude oil producing assets in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi, U.A.E. To assess the future Effective Capacity, track the actually achieved Effective Capacity and forecast the Effective Capacity for each forthcoming year, the company employs an Integrated Availability Model. The model was initially developed in 2002-2003, using Shell propietary tools to assess the future Effective Capacity for an expansion project. Three years later it was further developed for another expansion project. In 2006-2007 the model was upgraded to capture the actual downtime events of individual strings/wells and the critical surface facilities for System Availability tracking purpose. In 2009 the model was further developed to support planning task that includes synchronization / optimization of major shutdowns planning and forecast the Effective Capacity and the System Availability for each forthcoming year. The assessment, tracking and planning tasks are the core activities of the ADCO's Availability Assurance Program which objectives include improvement of the average System Availability towards 95%.
This paper describes how the model is gradually developed and utilized by showing relevant charts, processes and result examples.
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